D.C. Memo: Contrite Fund Manager Admits Not Seeing Cable One Train Wreck Coming
▪️BREAKING: Nexstar Buying TENGA at $22/Share▪️Newsmax Settles with Dominion ▪️Schiff-Carr D.C. Feud Enters Round 2▪️NTIA Already Has One Final BEAD Proposal ▪️HC2 Pressing FCC on LPTV Datacasting
BREAKING: In a big TV station combination, Nexstar Media Group and TEGNA announced today that they had reached a definitive agreement for Nexstar to acquire all outstanding shares of TEGNA in a $6.2 billion cash transaction. The deal, subject to regulatory approval, included the assumption of TEGNA’s net debt as well as estimated fees and expenses. Under the terms, Nexstar agreed to pay $22 per share, representing a 31% premium over TEGNA’s 30-day average stock price ending Aug. 8, 2025 – the last closing price before reports surfaced about a potential deal. “The initiatives being pursued by the Trump administration offer local broadcasters the opportunity to expand reach, level the playing field, and compete more effectively with the Big Tech and legacy Big Media companies that have unchecked reach and vast financial resources. We believe TEGNA represents the best option for Nexstar to act on this opportunity,” Nexstar’s Chairman and CEO Perry Sook said.
Cable One: In April 2023, Atai Capital Management Founder & Portfolio Manager Brandon Daniel didn’t think Cable One would face much competitive pressure, making the regional ISP’s stock a buy. “Fiber is an overstated risk and has been for a while, and the verdict is still out on Fixed Wireless Access (FWA),” Daniel told his investors then. Last week, in his second quarter 2025 letter to investors, the contrite stock picker confessed that his market predictions had been wrong and he sold his Cable One shares for $250 each, probably at a substantial loss because Cable One was trading at about $700 per share at his April 2023 entry point. “Over the following two and a half years, that thesis unraveled. Cable One’s HFC network went from roughly 30% overbuilt (which mainly was the large population centers of their footprint) to more than 60%, so in short, we were wrong,” he said. Cable One’s pricing strategy, he noted, has hurt the company. “It turned out that Cable One had pushed ARPUs high enough that it became economically viable for AT&T, Lumen, and others to overbuild their more rural markets,” Daniel said. Atai, by the way, means “value” in Japanese. (More after paywall.)
