D.C. Memo: SpaceX Revenue to Hit $3.3 Trillion by 2040, Morgan Stanley Analysts Predict
Their 2040 projection of $3.3 trillion – a figure four times Amazon’s current annual revenue – assumes SpaceX creates new total addressable markets in connectivity and physical AI
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SpaceX: Morgan Stanley is projecting massive long‑term revenue growth for SpaceX. In a July 7 report, firm analysts estimated $319 billion in revenue by 2030 and $3.3 trillion by 2040, saying the forecast reflects execution, regulatory, and engineering risks but also the company’s technological advantages. “… We believe SpaceX can convert energy into intelligence at scale with optionality to monetize through a range of consumer and enterprise solutions for the next era of AI … the final frontier,” the Morgan Stanley team said. SpaceX had about $19 billion in 2025 revenue. Morgan Stanley 2040 projection of $3.3 trillion in revenue – a figure four times Amazon’s current annual revenue – assumes SpaceX creates new total addressable markets in connectivity and physical AI. The Wall Street firm warned that high capital needs, including $300 billion in yearly capex by 2031, pose significant financing risks. “Starship Flight 13 in July, Starship Flight 14 in late 3Q, and first operational Starship payloads in 4Q are the key launch milestones,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said. (More after paywall)
