D.C. Memo: T-Mobile, Verizon Hit Peak FWA in 2023, Analyst Says

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Peak FWA: Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) operators like T-Mobile and Verizon helped the sector amass 9.8 million subscribers in just a few years, causing problems for cable broadband ISPs like Comcast and Charter. But the FWA growth story is coming to an end, according to MoffettNathanson Senior Managing Director Craig Moffett in a report Wednesday. "We continue to believe that 2023 will prove to have been the peak year of fixed wireless growth. T-Mobile’s relatively recent focus with fiber projects, still too insignificant to build a business around, may suggest that they are already looking past fixed wireless runway for future growth in broadband," Moffett said. T-Mobile has 5.5 million FWA subscribers. Last month, the company in a revision said its new goal was 12 million FWA subscribers by the end of 2028, compared to its previous target of 7.5 million in 2025. "While they recently raised their longer-term target at their analyst day in [September] (from 7-8M to 12M), the quarterly and annual run rates look to remain at this lower (slower) level," Moffett said. In June, New Street Research said the top four U.S. wireless operators had spectrum assets to serve no more than 16 million FWA subscribers.