D.C. Memo: Will FCC Pull the Plug on Amazon Leo for Failing to Meet Launch Goals?
Analyst Roger Entner says Amazon Leo Can’t Possibly Meet FCC's July 2026 Milestone but Won’t Face Guillotine under FCC Chairman Brendan Carr
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Amazon Leo: Would FCC Chairman Brendan Carr put Amazon LEO out of business by denying it a crucial operational waiver by next July? Highly unlikely, because the FCC would not want to deepen Starlink’s dominance in the low Earth orbit satellite Internet service sector. “Regulators are expected to grant the accommodation to avoid entrenching a SpaceX/[Starlink] monopoly,” said Roger Entner, Analyst & Founder of Recon Analytics, in a new 64-page report on U.S. satellite Internet competition. Entner said Amazon Leo faced a steep shortfall against the FCC’s July 2026 deployment deadline. With only about 180 satellites projected to be in orbit by mid-December 2025, Amazon was short roughly 1,438 satellites and cannot realistically close the gap through launch cadence alone, Entner said. “Consequently, Amazon requires a waiver that would typically invite withering scrutiny; however, the shifted political landscape, where President Trump increasingly favors Jeff Bezos over the volatile Elon Musk, renders such regulatory accommodation probable, if not a certainty.” Ricky Freeman, president of Amazon Leo Government Solutions, said in September the company expected to initiate service in five countries − Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States − by the end of the second quarter next year.. (More after paywall.)
